It is important for organizations to develop and use a
theory of change in order to design effective community change initiatives and
to accurately evaluate their efforts.
The process of developing a theory of change is usually very helpful in
forming a common vision and agreement among diverse stakeholders about what you
want to change and how you are going to go about creating that change. This formal tool helps you articulate the assumptions
that underlie the work you are doing and also helps you layout the pathway for
achieving your long-term goals. A theory
of change is a powerful communication vehicle for both internal and external
audiences.
What is a Theory of
Change?
At its most basic, a
theory of change defines how and why you expect the desired outcomes to
occur. It is like a map showing where
you are now and how you are going to get where you are going. It also explains why you think the route you
have chosen is the right one. Leaders in
the field have defined theories of change in a variety of ways:
·
A theory of change is a systematic assessment of what needs to
happen in order for a desired outcome to occur.
Theories of change should be designed to explain how and why change
happens as well as the potential role of an organization’s work in contributing
to its vision of progress. (Evaluation as a Pathway to Learning, Grantmakers for Effective
Organizations)
·
A theory of change is an innovative
tool to design and evaluate social change initiatives. By creating a blueprint of the building
blocks required to achieve a social change initiative’s long-term goal…a theory
of change offers a clear roadmap to achieve your results identifying the
preconditions, pathways and interventions necessary for an initiative’s success. (ActKnowledge and Aspen Institute Roundtable
on Community Change) add link to Online
Tools, 1st entry
·
A theory of change is an explanation of
how the organization thinks that social change is brought about. It often identifies the essential
preconditions that are needed for this change to occur. These preconditions enable the organization
to trace a number of “outcome pathways”: visible and measurable short- and
medium-term outcomes that will lead to its long term goals. Finally, it includes a reference to other
actors working in parallel and complementary ways in order to achieve that
change, which identifies the long-term relationships needed with other actors
in order to achieve its impact. (Developing a Theory of Change, Keystone)
add link to Online Tools, 3rd entry
Most researchers agree that good
theories of change are:
1.
Plausible
- evidence and common sense suggest that the specified activities will lead to
the desired outcomes;
2.
Doable
- the initiative has adequate financial, technical, political, institutional
and human resources to implement the strategy; and
3.
Testable
- the pathways of change are specific and complete enough, with measurable
indicators and specified pre-conditions, to track the progress in a credible
and useful way.
·
Contextual Factors
·
Needs/Issues
·
Guiding Principles
·
Assumptions and Beliefs
·
Values
·
Preconditions
·
Strategies
·
Expected Change (Short-, Mid-, Long-Term)
·
Ultimate Impact
You can use your theory:
·
As
a framework to check milestones and stay on course
·
To
document lessons learned about what really happens
·
To
keep the process of implementation and evaluation transparent, so everyone
knows what is happening and why
·
To
persuade donors to invest in longer term outcomes rather than short projects
·
As
a basis for reports to stakeholders, donors, policymakers, boards
(from Developing a Theory of Change, Keystone) add link
to Online Tools, 3rd entry
Perhaps the most useful aspect of a theory
of change is the discussion and exchange among stakeholders during the
development process. The value of the
process can be extended by recognizing that a theory of change is a constantly
evolving working document that should be the focus of regular reflection and
revision with all stakeholders.
Essentially a theory of
change defines how and why you expect the desired outcomes to
occur and usually applies to several programs or the whole organization. In contrast, a logic model visually presents
your understanding of the relationships among your program’s resources, planned
activities and anticipated results and usually applies to a single program. Logic
models clarify what you are doing; theories
of change clarify why you are doing
it.
Theory
of Change
|
Logic
Model
|
Links outcomes and activities
to explain how and why the expected change will occur
|
Graphically illustrates program
components, identifies, inputs, activities and outcomes
|
Usually starts with a goal
before deciding on programmatic components
|
Usually starts with a program
and illustrates its components
|
Requires justification for
program components; specifies the hypothesis about why something will cause
something else
|
Requires identification of
program components, but doesn’t show why activities are expected to produce
outcomes
|
Requires identifying indicators
to measure outcomes
|
Sometimes includes indicators
to measure outcomes
|
Best used to design and
evaluate a complex initiative
|
Best used to demonstrate you
have carefully identified the inputs, outputs and outcomes of your work
|
This site
provides an overview of theory of change principles and history and a helpful
glossary of terms. It walks you through
a detailed example of how a collaborative created their theory of change. The site is designed to help you learn about
how to apply a theory of change and how it can improve the design and
evaluation planning of your initiative. It also includes a section with
advanced topics for more experienced TOC users.
Theory of Change Online - ActKnowledge
& Innovation Network
Developing a Theory of Change -
Keystone
www.keystonereporting.org/node/115
This manual
defines a theory of change and explains the benefits of creating one for your
organization. It provides a framework
for a one-day workshop to start the process of creating your theory of change. The manual includes specific activities and
examples of one organization’s products during the workshop process.
Logic Model Development Guide –
Chapter 3, Developing a Theory-of-Change – W.K. Kellogg Foundation
www.wkkf.org/Pubs/Tools/Evaluation/Pub3669.pdf
Chapter
3 in the highly regarded W.K. Kellogg Foundation’s manual, provides a
step-by-step process, including a template, checklist and examples for
developing a theory of change which is integrated with and supported by your
logic model.
Mapping Change:
Using a Theory of Change to Guide Planning and
Evaluation – Ford Foundation
www.grantcraft.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=Page.viewPage&pageID=808
This brief guide explains why
grant makers use theories of change to guide their
questioning, unearth assumptions that underlie their work, establish common
language, and develop strong action plans. Contributors to the guide also
describe how a theory of change sets the stage for evaluation by clarifying goals, strategies and milestones. Although focused on
grant makers, the guide is very useful for grantees as well. Requires short
registration to download the free guide.
The Community Builder’s
Approach to Theory of Change: A Practical
Guide to Theory Development – Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change
www.aspeninstitute.org/atf/cf/%7BDEB6F227-659B-4EC8-8F84-8DF23CA704F5%7D/rcccommbuildersapproach.pdf
This manual
is designed for planners and evaluators who are going to facilitate a process
for creating a theory of change with community-based programs and community
change initiatives, but can be used by a self-led group or organization. It uses the Aspen Institute Roundtable’s
approach to create “the most robust theories of change possible.”
Planning and
www.evaluationtools.org/plan_theory.asp
Provides a brief
overview and example of a more simplified approach to creating a theory of
change and a listing of resources for additional information on developing a
theory of change. Includes the same
information for logic model development.
Theory of Change: A Practical Tool for
Action, Results and Learning – Annie E. Casey Foundation
www.aecf.org/upload/PublicationFiles/CC2977K440.pdf
This 45 page manual
produced for the Annie E. Casey Foundation lays out a process for creating a
theory of change and provides extensive examples and “learning tips” to guide
you through the process.
www.search-institute.org/research/knowledge/MakingEvaluationIntegral.html
Paper
written to encourage community initiatives to engage in creating theories of
action and change. Explains what is
meant by theory of action and change and describes the benefits of the
process. Includes several examples to
increase understanding.
Shapiro, Ilana. 2005, (Beyond Intractability)
www.beyondintractability.org/essay/theories_of_change/
This essay discusses theories of change in the context of conflict resolution initiatives, although much of the information is generic to theories of change in all fields. It also provides audio and text comments from researchers and practitioners regarding various aspects of working with theories of change.
Additional Resources Available from The Center for
Civic Partnerships www.civicpartnerships.org;
916.646.8680 Organizational
Learning and Evaluation Webpage (link to OLE page) ¨Conferences ¨Training ¨Presentations Copies of presentations and handouts from prior
conferences are available Tip
Sheet Series on Organizational Learning & Evaluation (link to each individual tip sheet) ¨Evaluation ¨Organizational Learning ¨Logic Models ¨Theory of Change ¨Qualitative & Quantitative Methods Tip Sheets covering a wide range of community
building and improving livability topics are also
available on the Center for Civic Partnerships’ Tools & Resources webpage (link to Tools
& Resources page listing all tip sheets)