Theory of Change
Top Tips
It is important for organizations to develop and use a
theory of change in order to design effective community change initiatives and
to accurately evaluate their efforts. The process of developing a theory of change is usually very helpful in
forming a common vision and agreement among diverse stakeholders about what you
want to change and how you are going to go about creating that change. This formal tool helps you articulate the assumptions
that underlie the work you are doing and also helps you layout the pathway for
achieving your long-term goals. A theory
of change is a powerful communication vehicle for both internal and external
audiences.
What is a Theory of Change?
At its most basic, a
theory of change defines how and why you expect the desired outcomes to
occur. It is like a map showing where
you are now and how you are going to get where you are going. It also explains why you think the route you
have chosen is the right one. Leaders in
the field have defined theories of change in a variety of ways:
- A theory of change is a systematic assessment of what needs to happen in order for a desired outcome to occur. Theories of change should be designed to explain how and why change happens as well as the potential role of an organization's work in contributing to its vision of progress. (Evaluation as a Pathway to Learning, Grantmakers for Effective Organizations).
- A theory of change is an innovative tool to design and evaluate social change initiatives. By creating a blueprint of the building blocks required to achieve a social change initiative's long-term goal, a theory of change offers a clear roadmap to achieve your results identifying the preconditions, pathways and interventions necessary for an initiative's success. (ActKnowledge and Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change)
- A theory of change is an explanation of how the organization thinks that social change is brought about. It often identifies the essential preconditions that are need for this change to occur. These preconditions enable the organization to trace a number of outcome pathways": visible and measurable short- and medium-term outcomes that will lead to its long term goals. Finally, it includes a reference to other actors working in parallel and complementary ways in order to achieve that change, which identifies the long-term relations needed with other actors in order to achieve its impact. (Developing a Theory of Change, Keystone)
Most researchers agree that good theories of change are:
1.
Plausible
- evidence and common sense suggest that the specified activities will lead to
the desired outcomes;
2.
Doable
- the initiative has adequate financial, technical, political, institutional
and human resources to implement the strategy; and
3.
Testable
- the pathways of change are specific and complete enough, with measurable indicators and specified pre-conditions, to track the progress in a credible
and useful way.
There are multiple components of
a theory of change, some of which vary depending on the template or framework
you choose to use to create yours. The
following is a list of generally accepted components common to most theories of
change:
-
Contextual Factors
- Needs/issues
- Guiding Principles
- Assumptions and Beliefs
- Values
- Preconditions
- Strategies
- Expected Change (Short-, Mid-, Long-Term)
- Ultimate Impact
Why do I need a Theory of Change?
There are myriad of benefits of engaging in the hard work of creating a theory of change:
-
Improves the design of your initiative by increasing the likelihood that all the important factors related to the long-term goal will be addressed
- Gets and keeps stakeholders on the same page - prevents activities and/or stakeholders working at cross purposes and leads to more realistic expectations
- Makes it easier to garner funding for the various aspects of your initiative
- Helps establish spending priorities and allocate resources
- Makes it easier to sustain, bring to scale and evaluate your program
- Makes your results more credible because they were predicted to occur in a specific way
- Helps you communicate the complexity of your initiative to the media, funders, government officials, partners, etc.
You can use your theory: (from Developing a Theory of Change, Keystone)
-
As a framework to check milestones and stay on course
- To document lessons learned about what really happens
- To keep the process of implementation and evaluation transparent, so everyone knows what is happening and why
- To persuade donors to invest in longer term outcomes rather than short projects
- As a basis for reports to stakeholders, donors, policymakers, boards
Perhaps the most useful aspect of a theory
of change is the discussion and exchange among stakeholders during the
development process. The value of the
process can be extended by recognizing that a theory of change is a constantly
evolving working document that should be the focus of regular reflection and
revision with all stakeholders.
What is the difference between a Theory of Change and a Logic Model?
Essentially a theory of
change defines how and why you expect the desired outcomes to
occur and usually applies to several programs or the whole organization. In contrast, a logic model visually presents
your understanding of the relationships among your program’s resources, planned
activities and anticipated results and usually applies to a single program. Logic
models clarify what you are doing; theories
of change clarify why you are doing
it.
Theory
of Change
|
Logic
Model
|
Links outcomes and activities
to explain how and why the expected change will occur
|
Graphically illustrates program
components, identifies, inputs, activities and outcomes
|
Usually starts with a goal
before deciding on programmatic components
|
Usually starts with a program
and illustrates its components
|
Requires justification for
program components; specifies the hypothesis about why something will cause
something else
|
Requires identification of
program components, but doesn’t show why activities are expected to produce
outcomes
|
Requires identifying indicators
to measure outcomes
|
Sometimes includes indicators
to measure outcomes
|
Best used to design and
evaluate a complex initiative
|
Best used to demonstrate you
have carefully identified the inputs, outputs and outcomes of your work
|
Online Tools, How-To Guides and
Practical Resources
Theory
of Change -
Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change & ActKnowledge
www.theoryofchange.org
This site
provides an overview of theory of change principles and history and a helpful
glossary of terms. It walks you through
a detailed example of how a collaborative created their theory of change. The site is designed to help you learn about
how to apply a theory of change and how it can improve the design and
evaluation planning of your initiative. It also includes a section with
advanced topics for more experienced TOC users.
Theory of Change Online -
ActKnowledge
& Innovation Network
www.theoryofchange.org and www.innonet.org/pointk
A new interactive, online suite of tools for
creating, sharing and using theories of change is being developed by
ActKnowledge in partnership with several other organizations. The tool is being designed to be especially
useful for large-scale community initiatives and nonprofits’ reexamination of
their mission. Release is expected in
2008.
Developing a Theory of Change -
Keystone
www.keystonereporting.org/node/115
This manual
defines a theory of change and explains the benefits of creating one for your
organization. It provides a framework
for a one-day workshop to start the process of creating your theory of change. The manual includes specific activities and
examples of one organization’s products during the workshop process.
Logic Model Development Guide –
Chapter 3, Developing a Theory-of-Change
W.K. Kellogg Foundation
www.wkkf.org/Pubs/Tools/Evaluation/Pub3669.pdf
Chapter
3 in the highly regarded W.K. Kellogg Foundation’s manual, provides a
step-by-step process, including a template, checklist and examples for
developing a theory of change which is integrated with and supported by your
logic model.
Mapping Change: Using a Theory of Change to Guide Planning and
Evaluation -
Ford Foundation
www.grantcraft.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=Page.viewPage&pageID=808
This brief guide explains why
grant makers use theories of change to guide their
questioning, unearth assumptions that underlie their work, establish common
language, and develop strong action plans. Contributors to the guide also
describe how a theory of change sets the stage for evaluation by clarifying goals, strategies and milestones. Although focused on
grant makers, the guide is very useful for grantees as well. Requires short
registration to download the free guide.
The Community Builder’s
Approach to Theory of Change: A Practical
Guide to Theory Development -
Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change
www.aspeninstitute.org/atf/cf/%7BDEB6F227-659B-4EC8-8F84-8DF23CA704F5%7D/rcccommbuildersapproach.pdf
This manual
is designed for planners and evaluators who are going to facilitate a process
for creating a theory of change with community-based programs and community
change initiatives, but can be used by a self-led group or organization. It uses the Aspen Institute Roundtable’s
approach to create “the most robust theories of change possible.”
Planning and
Evaluation
Resource
Center
www.evaluationtools.org/plan_theory.asp
Provides a brief
overview and example of a more simplified approach to creating a theory of
change and a listing of resources for additional information on developing a
theory of change. Includes the same
information for logic model development.
Theory of Change: A Practical Tool for
Action, Results and Learning -
Annie E. Casey Foundation
www.aecf.org/upload/PublicationFiles/CC2977K440.pdf
This 45 page manual
produced for the Annie E. Casey Foundation lays out a process for creating a
theory of change and provides extensive examples and “learning tips” to guide
you through the process.
Learn More about Organizational Learning
GrantMakers for Effective Organizations Theory of Change
www.geofunders.org/content.aspx?oid=fec9f793-c130-41ed-b6b6-1e3f19a8b63a
This document describes
GEO's emerging theory of change, the product of a board-led effort to shape GEO's
vision for the future of the organization and the philanthropic sector. Although specific to funders, it is a very
good example of a comprehensive theory of change and insightful for grantees
and nonprofit organizations. issue is available online).
Theories of Change –
Beyond Intractability
Shapiro, Ilana. 2005, (Beyond Intractability)
www.beyondintractability.org/essay/theories_of_change/
This essay discusses theories of
change in the context of conflict resolution initiatives, although much of the
information is generic to theories of change in all fields. It also provides audio and text comments from
researchers and practitioners regarding various aspects of working with
theories of change.
© Public Health Institute, Center for Civic Partnerships 2007
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